• Editors' Summary
• Credits

1. A New Look at Logistics
2. Clients Come First
3. People and Performance
4. The Role of Information
5. Forecasting and Procurement
• Forecasting
• Validating the Forecast
• Estimating Requirements
• Procurement
• Monitoring the Forecast and Distribution Cycle
6. Distribution
7. Toward Contraceptive Security

• Figures
• Tables
• Side-bars
• Bibliography

• Programs face funding crisis
• Benefits of better logistics
• Improving staff performance
• Tips on building policy support
• Checklist: Assessing the supply chain
• How to make accurate forecasts
• Push or pull distribution
• The commercial sector can help

• POPLINE
• Media/Materials Clearinghouse
• Other issues
• To order copies
• CCP Home Page

This issue of Population Reports was prepared in collaboration with the DELIVER Project of John Snow, Inc.

Published by the Population Information Program, Center for Communication Programs, The Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, 111 Market Place, Suite 310, Baltimore, Maryland 21202, USA

Forecasting and Procurement

Accurately forecasting contraceptive use helps ensure that enough supplies will be available to meet client demand, without having too many. Effective procurement—including calculating how many contraceptives should be ordered, of what type, and when they should be shipped—ensures that the program receives a continuous supply (47).

Forecasting the number of each type of contraceptive that clients are likely to use is the only way to ensure that programs order the right amount of each. Having too few contraceptives may result in stockouts and dissatisfied clients, while too many wastes resources and overburdens the supply system. Of course, factors other than inaccurate forecasts—including budget constraints, fluctuations in product availability from manufacturers, introduction of new products, special promotional events, and complications in donor coordination—can cause supply disruptions.

At a minimum, a commodity forecast should be done annually to cover a three-year period (49). The LMIS provides the information needed to make forecasts and to develop procurement plans. Three sources of data help estimate contraceptive needs (47):

• Historical consumption data. The quantities of each contraceptive method that clients have received over a specific period of time provide a guide to future needs. To obtain the most accurate estimates, programs should use data on quantities actually provided to clients. If these data are unavailable, other statistics can help—for example, data on supplies issued to service delivery points, or inventory levels in the distribution system closest to the client. A drawback of these other data is that they make no distinction between contraceptives actually distributed to clients and contraceptives lost, destroyed, or stolen (25, 43).
• Historical service data. Regular management reports at service delivery sites provide other data for forecasting: the number of new clients and revisits for each method (or brand) (25). Forecasts prepared from service data can be inaccurate, however, if reporting systems are weak, if variations exist among programs in definitions of service data, or if demand is growing rapidly.
• Population data. Information from population surveys helps to project demand for contraceptive use several years ahead. Such data are most appropriate for new programs that do not have historical consumption or service data. Forecasts based on population data must make assumptions about growth of demand.

FPLM/JSI

With the Himalaya mountains behind him, this logistics field officer in Nepal reviews family planning program field reports as part of his responsibilities for monitoring logistics operations. To forecast supply needs accurately, programs use a variety of data, including client visits to service delivery sites and supplies used.

Because it is about the future, a forecast can never be perfectly accurate (47). The forecaster must find ways to reduce forecasting errors as much as possible, however—that is, to validate the forecast.

To validate a forecast, the forecaster assesses the strengths and weaknesses of each type of data and, if needed, makes adjustments to the forecast. For example, a forecast based on historical consumption data from 90% of facilities reporting will be more accurate than—and thus should be used instead of—a forecast based on 50% of facilities. Also, service data from a period during extensive stockouts will not reflect actual demand. The forecaster reconciles the possible differences among forecasts derived from the different types of data (43, 47).

The forecaster must account for the effect on future consumption of program plans, new methods, and other influences on demand, such as publicity campaigns. The forecaster also must plan for the growth in the number of people of reproductive age and the percent using contraceptives. Program managers should be involved throughout the forecasting process because of their familiarity with their program needs and their knowledge of program plans. In addition, less predictable events, such as political and economic turmoil, and even bad weather, affect contraceptive demand and supply.

While forecasting predicts future consumption, the process also must take into account supplies already on hand and on order. The estimated quantity of each type of contraceptive required in a given planning period can be calculated as shown in Figure 4.

If the net supply requirement is a negative number, then that amount must be obtained to maintain the desired stock level. If the number is positive, then there is a possible oversupply of stock, and no order needs to be placed (47). An overstock may suggest the need to reallocate contraceptive supplies so that clients in all locations have enough supplies.

Estimated requirements can be calculated using computer software programs designed for contraceptive logistics management. Such programs are powerful tools that can help managers with forecasting, managing supplies through the supply chain, and procurement planning (see Software for Procurement Planning).