The following are POPLINE records which correspond to documents from the Winning the Food Race Bibliography. Only the items that were particularly useful in the preparation of this issue of Population Reports are highlighted here.

6.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/117212
AUTHOR: Bongaarts J
TITLE: Population pressure and the food supply system in the developing world.
ABSTRACT: Food supply data for the period 1962-89 are provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for 90 developing countries. This analysis found that countries with high and low population densities responded differently to rising demand for food. It is expected that a large increase in agricultural output will be needed to satisfy increased population growth and improvement in diets in the developing world. The analytic framework identifies the linear factors affecting food consumption as potential arable land, arable land, harvested area, harvested area for food crops, domestic production of food crops, direct human consumption, and total food consumption. In 1989, for 90 developing countries, total human food consumption was estimated to be 1.32 billion tons of grain equivalent (tge) or 0.34 billion tge/capita. In 1989, 94% of developing country harvested area was used to grow food crops. Total food production in the developing world amounted to 1.56 tge produced on 0.696 billion hectares of harvested area. Net imports amounted to 3% of domestic production. 74% of total food production went to direct human consumption. 26% went towards animal feed, seed, nonfood industrial uses, and waste. In 1989, the average caloric intake was 2472/capita/day. It is likely that global food shortages can be avoided with appropriate government management. However, the expansion of food production would be responsible for much degradation of environmental resources. Reduced undernutrition would require the elimination of poverty, and food demand will be greatest in the highest population density countries of India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. These countries must increase future crop yields, cropping frequency, or the trade multiplier. It is expected that food production will increase in countries with the lowest food production costs and that the poorest countries will need food aid.
SOURCE: New York, New York, Population Council, 1996. 36 p. (Research Division Working Papers No. 86)

25.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/103836
AUTHOR: Engelman R ; LeRoy P
TITLE: Conserving land: population and sustainable food production.
ABSTRACT: This report considers the impact of population size, growth, and distribution as well as consumption patterns and agricultural technology on the amount of arable land and sustainable food production (to feed present generations without jeopardizing food for the future) worldwide. The report opens with a brief overview of the current security of the global food supply and then discusses the factors that could limit the expansion of the food supply to match future population growth, such as 1) the closing of the agricultural frontier, 2) the 1985 peak in per capital global crop production, 3) the fact that farming and other human activities may have siphoned off enough fresh water to account for 2 inches of the 6-inch increase in the global sea level, 4) the reduction in plant-growing potential of land equal in area to China and India combined since World War II and the degradation beyond restoration of land equal in size to Hungary, 5) deteriorating soil quality, and 6) the increasing resistance of crop pests to pesticides. The ways in which population growth affects the availability of arable land are analyzed, and the implications of this relationship are considered. Finally, suggestions are made about how the development strategies of increasing agricultural production, conserving natural resources, and stabilizing population can be used together to ensure lasting food security. This report also considers social and economic issues such as the fact that women provide most of the work in subsistence farming and need productive and dignified livelihoods. Data provided in the report quantifies the average availability of arable land to people in 125 countries with populations exceeding 1 million people for the time periods 1960-61, 1990, and 2025 under the UN's most recent low, medium, and high population projections and with the assumption that the amount of arable land will remain constant. In addition to the text, information is presented in "boxes" on the earth's arable land and population, definitions of key terms and concepts, soil as a critical natural resource, China's land, "super rice" and population growth, the special case of Africa, arable land and conflict, breadbasket countries, the qualified success in Machakos, and women and the land.
SOURCE: Washington, D.C., Population Action International, Population and Environment Program, 1995. 48, [4] p.

26.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/092932
AUTHOR: Engelman R ; LeRoy P
TITLE: Sustaining water. Population and the future of renewable water supplies.
ABSTRACT: This report examines the effect of population size, growth, distribution, and consumption patterns on renewable water supplies. Even though more than 66% of this planet is covered with water, fresh water makes up only 2.5% of the entire water supply and 69% of that is in the polar ice caps. These figures take on even more meaning as the population increases. The rate at which the global hydrologic cycle renews or replenishes fresh water resources determines the availability of fresh water for human use. Evaporative demand and the timing and location of precipitation contribute greatly to its availability. The greatest drain on water supplies is agriculture (69% of all use), followed by industry and energy (23%), and household use (8%). Desalination of our oceans has been hailed as a technology providing an inexhaustible water supply, but extracting salt from seawater is expensive and depends on nonrenewable, pollution-causing fossil fuels. Acute water shortages have already plagued some countries, regions, and municipalities. Europe and North America could not have industrialized had it not been for dependable sources of abundant water. Yet, many developing countries do not have such access, making economic development more difficult for them to achieve. Countries with less than 1700 cubic meters/person, less than 1000 cubic meters/person, and less than 500 cubic meters/person face water stress, chronic water scarcity, and absolute water scarcity, respectively. The number of water-scarce countries increased from 7 in 1955 to 20 in 1990, and if population growth projections continue, there will be 30-35 water-scarce countries by 2025. Deteriorating water quality caused by raw sewage and industrialized and agricultural wastes further reduces the availability of fresh water and causes numerous diseases (e.g., diarrhea). Access to potable water and sanitation is needed to achieve individual health. Water will eventually overshadow oil as a scarce and precious resource. Population stabilization, water conservation, and more efficient use of water are the most effective long-term strategies to manage water scarcity.
SOURCE: Washington, D.C., Population Action International, Population and Environment Program, 1993. 56 p.

28.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/111648
AUTHOR: Falkenmark M ; Widstrand C
TITLE: Population and water resources: a delicate balance.
ABSTRACT: Various avenues exist to minimize the effects of the current water crisis in some regions of the world and the more widespread problems that will threaten the world in the future. Active management of existing water resources and a reduction in population growth in water-scarce areas are needed to minimize the effects of the water crisis. National boundaries do not effect water systems. Cooperation and commitment of local, national, and international governments, institutions, and other organizations are needed to manage water systems. Development in each country must entail conscientious and effective balancing of unavoidable manipulations of the land and the unavoidable environmental impacts of those manipulations. The conditions of environmental sustainability must include protection of land productivity, ground water potability, and biodiversity. Humans must deal with these factors either by adopting methods to protect natural systems or by correcting existing damage and reducing future problems. They need to understand the demographic forces in each country so they can balance society's rising needs for clean water with the finite amount of water available. Factors affecting future needs at all levels include rapid rural-urban migration, high fertility, and changing patterns of international population movement. Given an increased awareness of global water systems, demographic trends, and active management of resources, the fragile balance between population and water can be maintained.
SOURCE: POPULATION BULLETIN. 1992 Nov;47(3):1-36.

31.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/115245
AUTHOR: Gardner G
TITLE: Shrinking fields: cropland loss in a world of eight billion.
ABSTRACT: This report addresses the issue of "sluggish" productivity and loss of land that results in reductions in global food stocks at a time when food demand is increasing. Population growth is highest in countries where grain self-sufficiency declined. Land is lost through urban expansion, loss of renewable groundwater resources for irrigation, soil degradation, and land-use shifts (such as for non-food crops like tobacco, cotton, or coffee). The potential for agricultural expansion, particularly in places such as Africa and Latin America, are overestimated by including marginal lands that may not be sustainable. The authors argue for protection of sustainably farmable cropland. Applied technology and government preservation programs, if operant, can help reduce the pressures on the remaining agricultural land. Pamphlet chapters are devoted to a discussion of trends in grain yields, the loss of irrigated land and groundwater depletion, soil degradation and urban encroachment, land scarcity, and provision of a sufficient land supply for future generations. Europe has already begun to protect farmland. In the US where land is freely developed, cropland losses could be reduced by requiring greater density in urban and suburban building. Strict zoning enforcement can restrict urban expansion into agricultural areas. Without strong regulation of farmland use, strategies may involve fiscal measures that have produced only modest gains in land saving. Taxation of farmland at its agricultural value or reducing estate taxes would help avoid unwanted loss of land. A little-used fiscal tool for instituting a farmland conversion tax would act as a disincentive. Governments can promote soil conservation methods of production and eliminate conditions that force use of marginal land. Pressure on farmland can be reduced through more efficient use of cropland, more efficient use of harvests, and reducing demand by reducing population growth and by reducing consumption of meat.
SOURCE: Washington, D.C., Worldwatch Institute, 1996 Jul. 55 p. (Worldwatch Paper 131)

33.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/074617 ; IND/8021709
AUTHOR: Green CP
TITLE: The environment and population growth: decade for action.
NOTES: Includes wall chart and poster.
ABSTRACT: The 10th Special Topics series emphasizes how population growth is linked with environmental stress. Each of the 90 million new people added to the Earth each year requires food, energy, and water. By the year 2000, >50% of developing countries will not be able to provide food for their populations. Almost 50% of the world's population will not have enough fuelwood to meet their needs. Only a few large stands of tropical forests will survive by the year 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in developing countries will have increased 3 times its present rate by the year 2020. Ocean levels could increase at least 1 m due to global warming which would flood coasts and uproot millions of people. Humans will have depleted immediately accessible oil supplies by the year 2030. The total hectares of tropical forests destroyed annually equals an area the size of Uruguay. Soil degradation is apparent in exhausted farmlands and eroded hillsides. Pollution has permeated the water and air supplies to the point where they cause disease rather than support life. Therefore pollution and overuse are threatening resources once considered renewable: air, water, forests, and soil. Farsighted economic and social policies, protection of high risk areas, support for family planning programs, resource conservation, and pollution control are now imperative to preserve ecosystems and to improve the quality of life. Many women want to limit their family size and more and more females are joining women in their reproductive years indicating these programs could be successful. If developing countries could provide family planning to 50% more couples during the 1990s world population growth would peak at 12 billion. Sidebars in this issue center on sustainable development, 5 major population impacts, what will happen if current trends continue, "overshoot," environmental pollution, global carrying capacity, and policy implications.
SOURCE: POPULATION REPORTS. SERIES M, SPECIAL TOPICS. 1992 May;(10):1-31. (RH Training Materials)

35.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/073805
AUTHOR: Harrison P
TITLE: The third revolution: environment, population and a sustainable world.
ABSTRACT: Crisis sometimes spurs revolutions. The revolution that needs impetus is sustainable development. The issues of rapid population growth, consumption and technology, and environmental destruction are complex. Overstating the importance of population growth is no better than ignoring it as an important factor. Five village case studies reflect empirical evidence of the nature of the problems: Musoh, Malaysia; Ranomafana, Madagascar; Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire; Kalsaka, Burkina Faso; and Hatia Island, Bangladesh. The example in Malaysia reflects the myth that forest people do not put pressure on the environment, which is only true when population density and consumption are low and technology is limited to sticks and blowpipes. Various theses about population are traced from Robert Wallace, William Godwin, and Thomas Malthus through critics such as William Hazlitt, Karl Marx, Henry George, and into the modern period of Ester Boserup, Paul Ehrlich, Dennis Meadows, and Paul Simon. The result is ideological chaos. The author reflects on the growth of the environmental crisis, the shortages of food, fertile land, energy, and minerals, and the state of biological diversity. The Madagascar example, illustrates past creative processes and present destructive ones. Deforestation, forest adjustments, land degradation, marginal people and areas are considered. Burkina Faso exemplifies how soil erosion can be stopped with appropriate use of technology on marginal slopes, but the balance between population and resources is lacking. In the Cote d'Ivoire example, author reflects on the growth of nonagricultural work, urbanization, the environmental impact of cities, solid waste generation and disposal, polluted waters, and atmospheric pollution. On Hatia Island population density, harsh environmental conditions, and cultural patterns which place women in inferior positions show the nature of poverty and interaction with population growth, which is exacerbated by natural disaster. A general theory of impacts is proposed based on Barry Commoner's concepts and charted. The options for action are identified. Shakespeare's Hamlet syndrome is referred to in the hope that action is not delayed until almost too late.
SOURCE: London, England, I.B. Tauris, 1992. xi, 359 p.

56.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/094442
AUTHOR: Lincoln DW
TITLE: Reproductive health, population growth, economic development and environmental change.
ABSTRACT: The interrelationships between reproductive health, population growth, economic development, and changes in the environment are much debated. One school adheres to the Malthusian view that population growth outstrips the capacity of the earth to provide necessary sustenance until it is checked by crises. They see evidence in the fall in the human sperm count, the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Africa, recurring famines, and ethnic and religious conflicts in areas of high population. Another school argues that mankind has the ingenuity to provide technical solutions, but they fail to address the planet's capacity to absorb environmental destruction and the enormous inequality in resource consumption between the North and the South. Other predict that the inability to control advanced technology will eventually precipitate an irreversible global disaster (e.g., the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and the conflagration of the oil wells in Kuwait in 1991). World population will increase by 1000 million, or by 20%, within 10 years, with 95% of this increase in the South. In the 1990s, annually, 40-60 million pregnancies will be terminated and 5-10 million children will die within one year of birth. AIDS-related infections, notably tuberculosis, will undermine health care in Africa and probably kill 15-20% of the work force before 2000. 2-4 million people will have died from AIDS-related infections by 2000, and a father 100-120 million will have come infected with HIV. In Tanzania, agricultural production has already fallen by 10-20% because of AIDS-related morbidity within the work force. The key issues are migration, the spread of disease, the supply of water and the degradation of land, and fiscal policies with respect to family planning, pharmaceuticals and Third World debt. Full education of women, and more effective family planning in the South can alleviate the problem. Otherwise the developed countries will be engulfed by the health, economic and environmental problems of the South, with its projected population of 5400 million people for the year 2000.
SOURCE: CIBA FOUNDATION SYMPOSIUM. 1993;175:197-214.

80.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: IND/8023962 ; PIP/118778
AUTHOR: Robey B ; Rutstein SO ; Morris L ; Blackburn R
TITLE: The reproductive revolution: new survey findings.
ABSTRACT: Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Family Planning Surveys are used to review fertility trends in developing countries since the 1960s. Consideration is given to fertility patterns and preference; contraceptive use, knowledge, and availability; estimates of unmet needs for family planning services; trends in marriage age; infant and child mortality; and antenatal and child health care. Future fertility patterns are also projected. An appendix provides information on the status of the surveys in each participating country as of December 1992.
SOURCE: Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population Information Program [PIP], 1992 Dec. 43 p. (Population Reports, Series M: Special Topics No. 11)

93.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/119314
AUTHOR: Ayres WS ; McCalla AF
TITLE: Rural development, agriculture, and food security.
ABSTRACT: Within 30 years the world will be supplying food for an additional 2.5 billion people, most of whom will live in developing countries. Developing countries in meeting future challenges will need to implement sound and stable macroeconomic and sector policies. The World Bank is providing analysis, policy dialogue, and financial support in specific countries for opening up agricultural markets globally. Developing countries need to enhance food supplies by encouraging rapid technological change, increasing the efficiency of irrigation, and improving natural resource management. Agricultural and income growth in developing countries is dependent upon transfer of the breakthroughs in agricultural technology to the millions of small farms in the developing world. People currently use about 70% of available fresh water for irrigation, and competition for water resources with urban and industrial users has increased. Agriculture and other sectors must increase the efficiency of water use. Natural resource planning and comprehensive water and natural resource management that rely on a community-based approach have proven successful. Developing countries need to improve access to food by strengthening markets and agribusinesses, providing education and health services to both boys and girls, investing in infrastructure, and fostering broad participation. The major challenge ahead is to ensure food security for the hundreds of millions of families living in poverty. This large and complex task involves increasing agricultural output worldwide, reducing poverty, and improving health and nutrition. Progress has been made in the past 25 years in improving living conditions, but not everyone has benefitted. Almost 75% of the poor live in rural areas without access to land, and 25% are urban poor without jobs. Most of the poor live in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank mandate is to reduce poverty and hunger through revitalized rural development.
SOURCE: FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT. 1996 Dec;:8-11.

97.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/133300
CORPORATE NAME: United Nations. Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development
TITLE: Critical trends: global change and sustainable development.
ABSTRACT: This report identifies critical long-term trends in environmental and socioeconomic matters and policy implications. This report will be used for preliminary meetings for the next Earth Summit + 5. Seven chapters focus on development and the environment, trends in world population, energy and materials consumption, the food supply, water resources, human development, and conclusions. Developing countries are rapidly following patterns of developed countries. There is a global pattern of consumerism and capitalism. Wealth differences are separating the rich from the poor. Poor countries continue to be marginalized in a very visible way. Environmental air and water quality is improving in developed countries, but is deteriorating in developing countries. Concern about nonrenewable resources has lessened. Concern focuses on the threat of continuing degradation of renewable resources. The issues that constrain sustainable development are growing poverty, population growth and urbanization, fossil fuel consumption, and rapid natural resource degradation. Positive signs include positive economic forecasts, accelerated technological innovations, and the spread of democratic institutions. Population programs, agricultural management techniques, and high standards of public health and education have positive effects. Policy has failed to eradicate poverty, improve access to sanitation and energy supplies, and reduce natural resource degradation. Constraints include lack of financial resources, lack of institutional capacity, and political unwillingness. Promising policy approaches include increased investment in people, encouragement of clean and efficient technologies, and pricing reforms.
SOURCE: New York, New York, United Nations, 1997. iv, 76 p. (ST/ESA/255)

99.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/148630
CORPORATE NAME: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]
TITLE: Food for all. World Food Summit, Rome, 13-17 November, 1996.
ABSTRACT: This book explores vital issues and questions that lie at the heart of global food security and achieving the goal of food for all. Chapter 1 examines food security at the global level. Chapter 2 looks at the balance between population and food supplies, including a historical perspective of population growth set against agricultural production. Chapter 3 covers issues critical in meeting the challenge in the provision of food for all. Chapter 4 provides a balance sheet of basic physical and living resources, illustrating the threats to them, and examines constraints to their continuing use and development. Chapter 5 deals with the introduction of integrated pest management, new approaches to irrigation and water management, and importance of biological diversity. Chapter 6 focuses on the participatory approach in creating institutional environments that facilitate change and encourage sustainable production. Chapter 7 examines the changing demographics of food production, evolution of farming systems, role of women in food production, processing and marketing, and harmonization of rural and urban priorities. Chapter 8 examines national and international actions to ensure stability of food. Chapter 9 reviews current state of trade in food and agricultural products and future projections, the changing balance in world international trade and implications of the Uruguay Round. Chapter 10 presents an overview of current trends of investment in agricultural developments. Finally, chapter 11 examines the kinds of commitments expected from nations and civil society in light of this historic event.
SOURCE: [Rome, Italy], FAO, 1996. 63 p.

117.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/137946
CORPORATE NAME: United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]
TITLE: Food for the future: women, population and food security.
ABSTRACT: This booklet provides an overview of the links between population growth and food security as it affects women in developing countries. The debate over the carrying capacity must consider that food resources are theoretically sufficient to feed the global population of 6 billion people, but nonetheless, nearly 841 million (one-sixth of total population) are chronically malnourished. The debate ignores women's role in food production and consumption. Support for women's reproductive rights and health will determine the growth and eventual size of world population. The Food and Agriculture Organization reports that food supplies must double by 2025 to meet the diets for 8.5 billion people. About 50% of the world's poor live in environmentally fragile rural areas. There are 9 Latin American, 12 Eastern European, 6 Near Eastern, 6 Pacific Island, 13 Asian, and 42 African countries that were low-income food deficit countries in 1995. Natural resources are currently showing signs of stress. The world is dependent on a narrow range of staple foods. The key issues are the need for an integrated approach, inequalities in production and consumption, poverty, women's support, and women decision-makers. Women work longer hours than men for less pay. One-half of all pregnant women suffer from iron deficiencies. Poor people spend up to 90% of their income on food. Urban agriculture is varied and essential. The relationship between women and land is complex. Seven policy areas need urgent attention: landownership, inheritance, access to credit, training, reproductive health services, male support, and women in policy-making.
SOURCE: New York, New York, UNFPA, [1997]. 16 p.

119.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/134981
AUTHOR: Harrison P
TITLE: Population and sustainable development: five years after Rio.
ABSTRACT: This report summarizes the progress that was made 5 years after the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in Brazil on June 1992. As an overview, the action program that was agreed at the conference covered the full scope of sustainable development, including eradication of poverty, creating sustainable livelihoods, changing consumption patterns, and strengthening the role of women and indigenous people. It was also recognized that population growth, combined with growth in unsustainable patterns of consumption and production, was putting severe stress on the planet's life-support system. These action programs, along with those formulated in Cairo will help achieve the goal of sustainable development. Unfortunately, these actions have less impact on society, which in turn has affected the environment. The Rio and Cairo conferences recognized the major impact of population trends on sustainable development and the environment, and their recommendations were reinforced by four other major international conferences. These conferences created a comprehensive approach to sustainable development, with a strong emphasis on human development, alleviation of poverty, and improvement of women's rights. But the most important link of all was for policy-makers to recognize that reproductive rights and women's rights, along with wider improvements in basic health and basic education can make a formidable contribution to sustainable development.
SOURCE: New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 1997. ii, 38 p.

124.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/148103
AUTHOR: Vitousek PM ; Mooney HA ; Lubchenco J ; Melillo JM
TITLE: Human domination of earth's ecosystems.
ABSTRACT: This article provides an overview of human effects on Earth's ecosystems, and presents specific policy recommendations concerning major human-dominated ecosystems. It is clear that humans control much of Earth, and their activities affect the rest. This is manifested in the many substantial and well-quantified changes occurring in the planet. Human enterprises such as agriculture, industry, fishing, and international commerce transformed the land surface, altered the major biogeochemical cycles, and added or removed species and genetically distinct populations in most of Earth's ecosystems. Recognition of the global consequences of the human enterprise suggests that humans should work to reduce the rate at which they alter the Earths system. Reducing the rate of human effects on Earth involves slowing human population growth and using resources efficiently and practically. In addition, humans can accelerate efforts to understand Earth's ecosystems and how they interact with the numerous components of human-caused global change. This challenge to understanding requires that the human dimensions of global change (social, economic, cultural, and other drivers of human actions) be included within the analyses. Finally, humanity's dominance of Earth means that humans cannot escape responsibility for managing the planet. Maintaining the diversity of wild species and the functioning of wild ecosystems will require increasing the involvement of humans.
SOURCE: SCIENCE.. 1997 Jul 25;277:494-9.

133.
DOCUMENT NUMBER: PIP/148639
CORPORATE NAME: World Health Organization [WHO]
TITLE: Health and environment in sustainable development: five years after the Earth Summit.
ABSTRACT: This book focuses on health and environment within the context of social and economic development. Specifically, it demonstrates that environmental quality is crucial for human health by describing the adverse health effects of environmental hazards and by showing how a sound environment can support health. In presenting trends over time and future projections it highlights newly emerging environmental health problems and indicates the types of local and national monitoring and assessment that would strengthen environmental health management. The concept of the environmental cause-and-effect framework serves as the structure of the book. Chapter 1 explains the framework and introduces key issues discussed in this book. Driving forces behind current health-and-environment trends such as environmental health problems, population growth, and economic development are reviewed in chapter 2. Chapters 3 and 4 examine major human activities affecting environmental quality and describes how lowered environmental quality in various media and settings can lead to high levels of exposure and risk to human health. Chapter 5 examines environmental health problems from the viewpoint of the burden of death, disease, and disability, and analyzes the relative importance of certain environmental factors. Chapter 6 reviews integrated policies, strategies, and actions undertaken to address environmental and health issues. The book finishes with major conclusions, which emerge from the assessments made on the impact of environmental health activities at the local, national, and global level.
SOURCE: Geneva, Switzerland, WHO, 1997. xvi, 245 p. (WHO/EHG/97.8)