CONTENTS
- Shortages of Arable Land
- Land Degradation
- Loss of Agricultural Land to Urbanization
- Water Shortages
- Irrigation Problems
- Collapsing Fishieries
- Disappearing Genetic Diversity
- Climate Change
- Overcoming Constraints
HIGHLIGHTS
Population Reports is published by the Population Information Program, Center for Communication Programs, The Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, 111 Market Place, Suite 310, Baltimore, Maryland 21202-4012, USA
December, 1997
In many developing countries rapid population growth has meant that arable land per capita has declined sharply in recent years (see Figure 3, Population and Arable Land in Developing Countries). In 1961, for example, developing countries as a whole had an average of about one-half of a hectare of arable land per person; by 1992 the amount had fallen to less than one-fifth of a hectare. If current trends in population growth and land use continue, in 2050 the amount of arable land will be just over one-tenth of a hectare per person (119).
In the early 1990s, when FAO surveyed 57 developing countries, over half of all farms were less than one hectare in size not enough to feed a family with four to six children and produce a surplus for sale (98). In India nearly three-fifths of all farms are less than one hectare (76). In India and other countries where sons receive equal shares of land as their inheritance, farm size diminishes with each generation.
Moreover, arable land has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few farmers at the expense of family farms. In Guatemala, for instance, 3% of farmers control 65% of the most productive agricultural land percentages typical throughout Latin America (89). Although land concentration often results in better yields, in many cases export crops have replaced food crops grown for domestic consumption.
The amount of land that could be cultivated has been estimated at 2 billion hectares, or about 40% more than is currently put to the plow. Most of the uncultivated land is marginal, however, with poor soils and either too little rainfall or too much. Bringing such land into production would require costly irrigation systems or soil enhancement measures. FAO concludes that, without substantial new financial investments or unforeseeable improvements in technology, increases in food production will have to come from land that is already being cultivated (19, 98, 99).
Meanwhile, however, much currently cultivated land is being lost. Worldwide, an estimated 5 million to 7 million hectares of farming land disappear each year (98), taken out of production because of accelerating land degradation and rapid urbanization. As populous agricultural areas become even more crowded, arable land is likely to come under increasing pressure. Agricultural yields could fall as land becomes more degraded, putting the livelihoods of millions of subsistence farmers at risk (56, 98, 99).
 | Keeping pace with the rising number of new mouths to feed requires increasing gains in agricultural productivity. World population is growing by 80 million people a year. Most of this growth is in developing countries. As population grows, the amount of arable land per capita is declining sharply. |
