POPULATION REPORTS
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CONTENTS

         Chapters
  1. Population Growth and Food Needs
  2. Hunger in the Midst of Plenty
  3. Limits and Constraints
  4. Steps Toward Food Security
  5. Coordinating Population and Agricultural Policies

HIGHLIGHTS

For another book on this topic, see:
Obesity and Poverty: A New Public Health Challenge

Population Reports is published by the Population Information Program, Center for Communication Programs, The Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, 111 Market Place, Suite 310, Baltimore, Maryland 21202-4012, USA

Volume XXV, Number 4
December, 1997
 Winning the
       Food Race

In many developing countries rapid population growth makes it difficult for food production to keep up with demand. Helping couples prevent unintended pregnancies by providing family planning would slow the growth in demand for food. This would buy time to increase food supplies and improve food production technologies while conserving natural resources.

While the global economy produces enough food to feed the world's 6 billion people—if food could be better distributed—many people lack access to enough food for a healthy life. In particular, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has identified 82 poor countries that are at particular risk. These countries face rapid population growth, do not produce enough food domestically, confront serious constraints to producing more food, and cannot import enough to make up the deficit.

Hunger Widespread

In poor countries, especially where population is growing rapidly, hunger and malnutrition are often critical problems. An estimated two billion people suffer from malnutrition and dietary deficiencies. More than 840 million people—disproportionately women and girl children—suffer chronic malnourishment. Each year about 18 million people, mostly children, die from starvation, malnutrition, and related causes.

The World Food Summit in 1996 focused international attention on the concept of food security—access by all people to "safe and nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life," according to FAO. Worrisome trends in agricultural production and current international trade policies raise questions about whether food production and distribution can improve fast enough to overtake population growth and reach the goal of food security.

Discouraging New Trends

From the 1960s until a few years ago, world food supply kept pace with population growth. New agricultural technologies, better seed varieties, and irrigation—the Green Revolution—expanded the food supply. At the same time, in many developing countries contraceptive use has risen substantially, and fertility has fallen rapidly, amounting to a reproductive revolution. Between 1985 and 1995, however, in 64 of 105 countries studied by FAO, food production lagged behind population growth. Africa now produces nearly 30% less food per person than in 1967.

Moreover, trying to meet the rising demand for food is leading people to overuse the world's finite resource base. Most developing countries already are cultivating virtually all arable land. In some areas fertile soils are being exploited faster than they can regenerate. Fresh water supplies are becoming degraded or exhausted. Yields from capture fisheries have fallen. Such trends make it increasingly difficult to meet the world's food needs.

Steps to Food Security

Winning the food race requires a coordinated approach to increase agricultural production, improve food distribution, manage resources, and provide family planning. Also providing education and health care is essential to improve people's well-being and thus promote productivity and sustainable resource use. Along with better food distribution, achieving food security requires addressing the needs of small farmers and raising agricultural productivity while preserving soil and water resources.

The ultimate outcome of the race to achieve food security is likely to depend on answers to the following questions:

  • Will a new Green Revolution dramatically increase crop yields and keep up with growth in demand?
  • Will resource degradation, waste, and pollution be reduced, and by how much?
  • How soon will the reproductive revolution lead to replacement-level fertility worldwide?
Recent fertility declines have raised the hope that world population can stabilize some time in the next century. The sooner the world reaches replacement-level fertility of about two children per couple, the sooner world attention could shift away from the need to increase food production continually and toward improving the quality of life for all.

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Population Reports